State funding of the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan №AP26100389
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for the Development of the Care Economy in Kazakhstan: Promoting Employment and Gender Equality
January 2025 – December 2027
About the project
This project is aimed at supporting the transformation of Kazakhstan’s economy into a socially oriented one that prioritizes the well-being of every member of society.
We are developing a unique macroeconomic model to analyze and improve the care system for children and the elderly - a key driver of economic growth, gender equality, and social well-being in the country.
We are developing a unique macroeconomic model to analyze and improve the care system for children and the elderly - a key driver of economic growth, gender equality, and social well-being in the country.
Key areas of the project
Care economy
Analysis of paid and unpaid care
work for children and the elderly - an undervalued yet critically important sector of the economy.
work for children and the elderly - an undervalued yet critically important sector of the economy.
Macroeconomic
modeling
modeling
Development of the first Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model in Kazakhstan focused on the care sector to forecast the impact of various policy decisions.
Gender equality
Improvement of the care system as
a key aspect of public policy aimed
at expanding women’s economic
rights and opportunities.
a key aspect of public policy aimed
at expanding women’s economic
rights and opportunities.
Relevance of the problem
However, traditional economic models fail to fully capture the interlinkages between unpaid care work and macroeconomic outcomes, as unpaid labor is typically excluded from analysis (Cicowiez and Lofgren, 2023). This omission results in inaccurate forecasts and may lead to ineffective policy decisions. Our project seeks to address this gap by developing a modern macroeconomic model that makes the care sector visible for evidence-based economic policymaking in Kazakhstan.
Source mentioned:
However, traditional economic models fail to fully capture the interlinkages between unpaid care work and macroeconomic outcomes, as unpaid labor is typically excluded from analysis (Cicowiez and Lofgren, 2023). This omission results in inaccurate forecasts and may lead to ineffective policy decisions. Our project seeks to address this gap by developing a modern macroeconomic model that makes the care sector visible for evidence-based economic policymaking in Kazakhstan.
Source mentioned:
- Cicowiez, Mar tin & Lofgren , Hans , 2023 . "Child and elderly care in Sout h Korea: policy analysis wit h a gendered , care-focused computable general equilibrium model" , Philippine Review of E conomics , University of t he Philippines School of E conomics and Philippine Economic Society , vol. 60(1 ), pages 19-64 , June, 2023.
Goal of the Project
The main objective is to identify ways to improve the care system in Kazakhstan through the development of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model focused on the care sector.
This model will make it possible to
- More accurately forecast policy outcomes in the care sector;
- Analyze alternative public policy scenarios;
- Assess the impact of policy changes on tax revenues, employment, and household consumption across different household types.
Project objectives
01/01/2025 - 30/08/2025
Conduct an analysis of the care system in Kazakhstan, including the regulatory and legal acts affecting the care sector; collect and prepare sector-specific data.
01/09/2025 - 15/11/2025
Develop supplementary datasets to cover types of care not captured by the National Time- Use Household Surveys, the Labor Force Survey, and the “Gender and Generations ” survey ; conduct a dedicated survey
01/01/2026 - 30/06/2026
Develop a new Computable General
Equilibrium (CGE) model for Kazakhstan
focused on the care sector, to be used for simulating changes in public policy on care.
Equilibrium (CGE) model for Kazakhstan
focused on the care sector, to be used for simulating changes in public policy on care.
Run simulations of further expansions in care- related public policies, including increases in public spending on care, and analyze their impacts on tax revenues, employment, and consumption, disaggregated by household type.
Develop recommendations for improving the care system in Kazakhstan using the CGE model.
Finalize research outputs and prepare
academic publications based on the project results : at least two (2) articles or reviews in peer-reviewed journals indexed in the Social Science Citation Index, Arts & Humanities Citation Index, and/or t he Web of Science database, and/or having a CiteScore percentile of at least 50 in Scopus ; as well as articles and/or reviews in peer-reviewed foreign and/or domestic journals recommended by CQAFSHE ( the Committee for Quality Assurance in the Field of Science and Higher Education).
academic publications based on the project results : at least two (2) articles or reviews in peer-reviewed journals indexed in the Social Science Citation Index, Arts & Humanities Citation Index, and/or t he Web of Science database, and/or having a CiteScore percentile of at least 50 in Scopus ; as well as articles and/or reviews in peer-reviewed foreign and/or domestic journals recommended by CQAFSHE ( the Committee for Quality Assurance in the Field of Science and Higher Education).
01/07/2026 - 01/11/2026
01/01/2027 - 01/05/2027
01/01/2027 - 01/11/2027
4
5
6
МETHODOLOGY
Analysis of care system
in Kazakhstan
in Kazakhstan
Collection and preparation of data on the care sector
Development of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model
Launch of the Care Policy
Simulation
Simulation
Project Team
Scientific Supervisor:
- Maigul Sainovna Nugmanova – PhD in Economics, Director of the Gender Economics Research Center at Narxoz University. She has extensive experience in gender studies, has served as a Gender Expert for the World Bank, and led UNDP projects on the care economy in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
International Consultants and Experts:
- Mieke Elizabeth Meurs – PhD, Professor at American University (USA), Director of the “Gender Analysis in Economics” program. An international expert in gender economics with research experience across multiple countries.
- Martin Cicowiez – PhD, Professor at the National University of La Plata (Argentina). A leading macroeconomist and specialist in applying CGE models for policy assessment, with extensive experience in developing care-sector models.
- Sevag Agop – PhD, American University of Armenia. Leading specialist in SAM models building.
- Maigul Sainovna Nugmanova – PhD in Economics, Director of the Gender Economics Research Center at Narxoz University. She has extensive experience in gender studies, has served as a Gender Expert for the World Bank, and led UNDP projects on the care economy in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
International Consultants and Experts:
- Mieke Elizabeth Meurs – PhD, Professor at American University (USA), Director of the “Gender Analysis in Economics” program. An international expert in gender economics with research experience across multiple countries.
- Martin Cicowiez – PhD, Professor at the National University of La Plata (Argentina). A leading macroeconomist and specialist in applying CGE models for policy assessment, with extensive experience in developing care-sector models.
- Sevag Agop – PhD, American University of Armenia. Leading specialist in SAM models building.
- Research Team:
- - Zhanar Zhumagalikyzy Argynbayeva – PhD, Vice President for Science and Commercialization, Narxoz University.
- - Anastassiya Vladimirovna Lipovka – PhD, Almaty Management University.
- - Alisher Tleubayev – PhD, Postdoctoral Scholar, Nazarbayev University.
- - Abylai Tursyn – PhD candidate, Senior Lecturer, SDU University.
- - Alexina Vladilenovna Li – MA, Psychologist, Tutor.
- - Altynay Serikbay – Master’s student, Almaty Management University.
- - Zhansaya Beisenbaikyzy – PhD candidate, Narxoz University.
Expected Scientific and Practical Outcomes
A CGE model for Kazakhstan, developed as part of the project, will serve as an essential tool for analyzing and forecasting macroeconomic policies with a gender perspective.
An analytical report on the current state of the care system in Kazakhstan, identifying legislative and service delivery gaps.
Evidence-based policy recommendations for government agencies on improving the national care system.
Capacity building: Young researchers and PhD students will be trained in macro-modeling skills, strengthening Kazakhstan’s research and analytical capacity.
Planned Publications
- At least two (2) articles in leading peer-reviewed journals indexed in Web of Science (Q1-Q2) and Scopus (CiteScore percentile of at least 50)
- At least four (4) articles in peer-reviewed national and international journals recommended by CQAFSHE (the Committee for Quality Assurance in the Field of Science and Higher Education)
News
The project team participated in the International Conference on the Care Economy. Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, September 18-21.
15.10.2025
15.10.2025
From September 18 to 21, 2025, members of our research project - Project Leader Maigul Nugmanova, Research Team Member Abylai Tursyn, and International Consultant Mieke Meurs - participated in the International Conference “Economics and Gender: The Care Economy” held in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.
The conference, organized by the National University of Mongolia (NUM), brought together leading scholars, policymakers, and civil society representatives from more than ten countries, including Canada, South Korea, the United States, Argentina, Japan, and Kazakhstan. The event served as an important platform for sharing the latest research findings and policy innovations in the field of the care economy.
A highlight of the participation was the presentation by Project Leader Maigul Nugmanova, who introduced the goals and objectives of our study and emphasized its importance for the development of the care system in Kazakhstan.
In addition to the main program, project participants engaged in several unique activities:
Participation in the conference not only provided an opportunity to share our progress but also helped strengthen international research collaboration and gain valuable knowledge for the continued advancement of the project.
The conference, organized by the National University of Mongolia (NUM), brought together leading scholars, policymakers, and civil society representatives from more than ten countries, including Canada, South Korea, the United States, Argentina, Japan, and Kazakhstan. The event served as an important platform for sharing the latest research findings and policy innovations in the field of the care economy.
A highlight of the participation was the presentation by Project Leader Maigul Nugmanova, who introduced the goals and objectives of our study and emphasized its importance for the development of the care system in Kazakhstan.
In addition to the main program, project participants engaged in several unique activities:
- Field Visit: A trip to the Tuv aimag, where informal discussions were held with herder families on the challenges of unpaid care work.
- Specialized Training by Martin Cicowiez and Maria Floro: The final day of the conference was dedicated to a hands-on workshop on constructing gender-sensitive and extended macroeconomic models of care. The training was attended by Maigul Nugmanova, Mieke Meurs, Abylai Tursyn, and Alisher Tleubayev, a member of the research team.
Participation in the conference not only provided an opportunity to share our progress but also helped strengthen international research collaboration and gain valuable knowledge for the continued advancement of the project.
Participation in the international conference “Exploring the Nexus of Climate, Health, and Environment” (Doha, Qatar, October 25–26, 2025)
21.11.2025
21.11.2025
The project manager participated in the international conference CHE2025: "Exploring the Nexus of Climate, Health, and Environment," dedicated to the interrelationships between climate change, environmental pollution, and human health. The conference aimed to discuss key challenges in the MENA region and integrate global experience in sustainable healthcare, social protection, and child and elder care.
The CHE2025 program included plenary sessions, expert panels, and practical workshops focused on the following topics:
• the impact of climate factors and environmental degradation on health;
• social protection and social security; child and elder care;
• sustainable urban planning and health systems;
• the food-energy-water-health nexus.
Working Meetings and International Collaboration (Doha, October 23 – November 2, 2025)
During the visit, the project manager held a series of meetings with representatives of leading Qatari universities and organizations, including:
• Marafi Abdelhameed Dafaalla, Director of Community Development Programs, Arab Youth Climate Movement;
• Institute for Population Health at Weill Cornell Qatar;
• Center for Cultural Competence in Health Care.
Discussions covered a wide range of topics related to social justice, sustainable development, child and elder care systems, and strengthening community well-being in the face of climate and social change. Particular attention was paid to care management practices, culturally sensitive approaches to healthcare, the role of environmental factors in public health, and strengthening the resilience of families, vulnerable groups, and local communities.
The meetings facilitated widespread dissemination of information about the ongoing project among Qatari and international partners, deepened knowledge exchange with international experts, and laid the foundation for further collaboration. The visit significantly expanded the professional network in the Middle East region, opening up new opportunities for future joint research, data exchange, and the development of long-term international partnerships.
The CHE2025 program included plenary sessions, expert panels, and practical workshops focused on the following topics:
• the impact of climate factors and environmental degradation on health;
• social protection and social security; child and elder care;
• sustainable urban planning and health systems;
• the food-energy-water-health nexus.
Working Meetings and International Collaboration (Doha, October 23 – November 2, 2025)
During the visit, the project manager held a series of meetings with representatives of leading Qatari universities and organizations, including:
• Marafi Abdelhameed Dafaalla, Director of Community Development Programs, Arab Youth Climate Movement;
• Institute for Population Health at Weill Cornell Qatar;
• Center for Cultural Competence in Health Care.
Discussions covered a wide range of topics related to social justice, sustainable development, child and elder care systems, and strengthening community well-being in the face of climate and social change. Particular attention was paid to care management practices, culturally sensitive approaches to healthcare, the role of environmental factors in public health, and strengthening the resilience of families, vulnerable groups, and local communities.
The meetings facilitated widespread dissemination of information about the ongoing project among Qatari and international partners, deepened knowledge exchange with international experts, and laid the foundation for further collaboration. The visit significantly expanded the professional network in the Middle East region, opening up new opportunities for future joint research, data exchange, and the development of long-term international partnerships.
