Tilda Publishing
RU
KZ
ENG
State funding of the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan №AP26100389
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for the
Development of the Care Economy in Kazakhstan:
Promoting Employment and Gender Equality
January 2025 – December 2027
About the project
This project is aimed at supporting the transformation of Kazakhstan’s economy into a socially oriented one that prioritizes the well-being of every member of society.

We are developing a unique macroeconomic model to analyze and improve the care system for children and the elderly - a key driver of economic growth, gender equality, and social well-being in the country.
Key areas of the project
Care economy
Analysis of paid and unpaid care
work for children and the elderly - an undervalued yet critically important sector of the economy.
Gender equality
Macroeconomic
modeling
Improvement of the care system as
a key aspect of public policy aimed
at expanding women’s economic
rights and opportunities.
Development of the first Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model in Kazakhstan focused on the care sector to forecast the impact of various policy decisions.
Relevance of the problem
However, traditional economic models fail to fully capture the interlinkages between unpaid care work and macroeconomic
outcomes, as unpaid labor is typically excluded from analysis
(Cicowiez and Lofgren, 2023). This omission results in inaccurate forecasts and may lead to ineffective policy decisions. Our project seeks to address this gap by developing a modern macroeconomic model that makes the care sector visible for evidence-based economic policymaking in Kazakhstan.
Sources mentioned:
  • Cicowiez, Martin & Lofgren, Hans, 2023. "Child and elderly care in South Korea: policy analysis with a gendered, care-focused computable general equilibrium model", Philippine Review of Economics, University of t he Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 19-64, June, 2023.
Goal of the Project
The main objective is to identify ways to improve the care system in Kazakhstan through the development of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model focused on the care sector.
This model will make it possible to
More accurately forecast policy outcomes in the care sector;
Analyze alternative public policy scenarios;
Assess the impact of policy changes on tax revenues, employment, and household consumption across different household types.
Project objectives
01/01/2025 - 30/08/2025
Conduct an analysis of the care system in Kazakhstan, including the regulatory and legal acts affecting the care sector; collect and prepare sector-specific data.
01/09/2025 - 15/11/2025
Develop supplementary datasets to cover types of care not captured by the National Time- Use Household Surveys, the Labor Force Survey, and the “Gender and Generations ” survey ; conduct a dedicated survey
01/01/2026 - 30/06/2026
Develop a new Computable General
Equilibrium (CGE) model for Kazakhstan
focused on the care sector, to be used for simulating changes in public policy on care.
01/07/2026 - 01/11/2026
Run simulations of further expansions in care- related public policies, including increases in public spending on care, and analyze their impacts on tax revenues, employment, and consumption, disaggregated by household type.
01/01/2027 - 01/05/2027
Develop recommendations for improving the care system in Kazakhstan using the CGE model.
01/01/2027 - 01/11/2027
Finalize research outputs and prepare
academic publications based on the project results : at least two (2) articles or reviews in peer-reviewed journals indexed in the Social Science Citation Index, Arts & Humanities Citation Index, and/or t he Web of Science database, and/or having a CiteScore percentile of at least 50 in Scopus ; as well as articles and/or reviews in peer-reviewed foreign and/or domestic journals recommended by CQAFSHE ( he Committee for Quality Assurance in the Field of Science and Higher Education ).
Methodology
Analysis of care system
in Kazakhstan
Collection and preparation of
data on the care sector
Development of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model
Launch of the Care Policy
Simulation
Project Team
PhD in Economics, Director of the Gender Economics Research Center at Narxoz University. She has extensive experience in gender studies, has served as a Gender Expert for the World Bank, and led UNDP projects on the care economy in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Scientific Supervisor
Nugmanova Maigul Sainovna
International Consultants and Experts
Meurs Mieke Elizabeth
PhD, Professor at American University (USA), Director of the “Gender Analysis in Economics” program. An international expert in gender economics with research experience across multiple countries.
Martin Cicowiez
PhD, Professor at the National University of La Plata (Argentina). A leading macroeconomist and specialist in applying CGE models for policy assessment, with extensive experience in developing care-sector models
Sevag Agop
PhD, American University of Armenia. Leading specialist
in SAM models building.
Research Team
Zhanar Zhumagalikyzy Argynbayeva
Zhansaya Beisenbaikyzy
Altynay Serikbay
PhD, Vice President for Science and Commercialization, Narxoz University.
Abylai Tursyn
PhD candidate, Senior Lecturer, SDU University
Li Alexina Vladilenovna
MA, Psychologist, Tutor
PhD candidate, Narxoz University
Master ’s student, Almaty Management University.
Anastassiya Vladimirovna Lipovka
PhD, Almaty Management University.
Alisher Tleubayev
PhD, Postdoctoral Scholar, Nazarbayev University
Results and Publications
Expected Scientific and Practical Outcomes
  • A CGE model for Kazakhstan, developed as part of the project, will serve as an essential tool for analyzing and
    forecasting macroeconomic policies with a gender perspective.
  • An analytical report on the current state of the care system in Kazakhstan, identifying legislative and service
    delivery gaps.
  • Evidence-based policy recommendations for government agencies on improving the national care system.
  • Capacity building: Young researchers and PhD students will be trained in macro-modeling skills, strengthening Kazakhstan’s research and analytical capacity.
Planned Publications
  • At least two (2) articles in leading peer-reviewed journals indexed in Web of Science (Q1-Q2) and Scopus (CiteScore percentile of at least 50)
  • At least four (4) articles in peer-reviewed national and international journals recommended by CQAFSHE (the Committee for Quality Assurance in the Field of Science and Higher Education)
  • Preparation of at least one PhD dissertation based on the research topic.
News
Made on
Tilda